Friday, August 20, 2021

Can You Predict the Future?

My wife and I were lucky to retire a bit early. I understand that not everyone can. About two years into our five-year retirement plan, she developed an aneurysm that required brain surgery. Our priorities were rearranged overnight. Thankfully she fully recovered and no sooner had we retired than we were spouting the cliché, “I don’t know how I had time to work!”

 

It was not easy to leave our home of thirty-five years, our church, friends, family, and neighbors. But we did. We changed everything. And we visit them. They visit us. Some friends back north are still planning on thinking about doing something. They are either not ready, making “pre-tirement” changes, or have circumstances that prevent a major change. For some, the idea of a big change is paralyzing. 

 

A global pandemic is certainly a show-stopper, or an opportunity, depending on specifics. Job loss, illness, and many other factors routinely derail retirement. The current housing bubble and supply chain disruptions are having a major impact. And there are those who want to retire in place. In Illinois, that comes at a price. Following are some generalities I’ve come to believe. You likely disagree. This is intended to be a springboard for your own discussion and is written for those who have the means but may be delaying a decision.

 

Enough already! There is always risk, and as we age, I have found that many of our older friends and family seem to be stuck in place. I hear much rationalizing from them. The reality is that you get older every day and you are eventually going to die. Unless you have no interests, friends, imagination or the ability to explore, retirement is potentially one of the best times of your life. Why not enjoy as much of it as you can? 

 

Develop a concept of “enough” before entering the trap that has you saving “just a little bit more.” Financial planners routinely urge you to have at least two million investable dollars before even considering retirement. Of course they do! Those investable dollars generate fees. I have seen advisors use an actuarial table similar to those used by timeshare salesmen to make their case.

 

Have a purpose. Things to do are not a purpose. If you’ve become a human doing instead of a human being, work on that before you retire. If your job was your “purpose” you’ve allowed a necessary evil to get in the way of a wonderful opportunity. Retire to something. Don’t retire to nothing. That’s not life, it’s waiting to die. Oh, and that stamp collecting I’ve been putting off until retirement? Turns out, I don’t really like stamp collecting. You’re not going to be a different person when you arrive in retirement, but you will be a person with a greater, possibly scary amount of free time.

 

Don’t work unless you have fun at your job. Working is not retirement, but fun is always fun. The kinds of jobs available to people in their “golden years” can be low-paying, drudgery. Some joke about being a Walmart greeter someday. Is that really how you want to spend your time in this miraculous existence as the dominant life form on Earth? I know people who have a gift for making money. They turn to consulting. Again, that’s not retirement, but if you find you’re bored, you likely have skills that can be put to use. Volunteering can be a gratifying experience that allows you to make a difference in the lives of those you help.

 

If you can’t save more, spend less. Adjust your lifestyle and do what you might think to be impossible. Reduce from two cars to one. Two phones to one. Downsize your home. Sell all the junk cluttering that back room, attic, and garage. If you have a storage unit, shame on you! You’re what one friend calls a “three-quarter hoarder.” Dying with the most toys is still dying. You’re just leaving a mess for those who come next. That’s inconsiderate. Periodically assess budget line items like insurance, mortgage, and other semi-controllable items. Revisit them annually.

 

Take Social Security when it feels right. It’s money you deserve. You’ve been paying into the system your entire career. I know folks who obsess about the “break-even” period, optimizing the total return and the number of years it takes to get ahead as if they know how long they have. The next election, or the one after that, may be when the choice is modified or taken away from you. I once asked a recently retired acquaintance what he advised. He told me about a friend who delayed taking his Social Security to maximize the benefit. The friend died and never got a penny. As a result, my acquaintance took his early. Sadly, six months after he told me this story, he died of an illness undiagnosed as of the time we talked.

 

Budget, budget, budget. And by marking down everything you spend, I don’t mean documenting your failure. It takes at least one year to create a reality-based budget. Avoid categories like “Miscellaneous” or “Other.” They are budget-defeating black holes. If you have money, don’t be cheap. Frugality can become pathological. In the early years of your retirement, budget more for travel and entertainment. You’ll have plenty of time later to cut back. You only live once and things can change in a heartbeat!

 

Move and Purge. Sure, I know you love your house. You’ve lived there for a long time, or perhaps it was your family home. I broke down crying when I moved from the house where I grew up. But unless you’re going to be buried in the backyard, you’re going to leave eventually. You can always think of it as home. Moving is the most effective way to purge a lifetime of junk that has no meaning to anyone but you. Your kids don’t want your stuff. If you think they do, ask them while you’re still alive. You’ll most likely be disappointed. And if they want something, great, you get to experience the joy of giving while you’re here to appreciate a smile and a hug.

 

Make decisions! If you are comfortable only making one change at a time, do you plan to live to be 150? Sorry, but we don’t have time for linear decision-making. Parallel paths get more done in less time. You can do it. Don’t think of major life changes as disruptions. They are exciting and liberating!

 

Avoid “Vacation Syndrome” – You visited Florida and had a couple of drinks in a Tiki Bar. You can see spending every day like that. But now mow the lawn in August. Prepare for a hurricane. Listen to Jimmy Buffett until your ears bleed. Spend the entire summer inside because it’s as dauntingly uncomfortable as Minnesota in January. But being a Snowbird is not for everyone. It’s expensive and requires you to mentally live in two places at once unless you have extremely good caretakers at the other end. Using the Florida example, good help is maddeningly difficult to find, especially when they know you’re not around. If you’re lucky to know someone who made the move before you, ask lots of questions. In the case of southwest Florida, ask me.

 

Nothing is permanent. Go for it! Buy a home and move there. Carry a mortgage. Do you really want your life savings tied to an investment that can crash and burn as in 2008? Oh, you say, but look at what happened before and after! The reality is that homes are expensive, landlording can be a disappointing headache, and “past performance is no guarantee of future results.”

 

If it doesn’t work out, move again. Paralysis by analysis will only guarantee that you don’t move, don’t travel, don’t enjoy the earliest part of your remaining years, and get stuck in a rut until it’s legitimately too difficult to change. One couple we know, ages 71 and 76 are “thinking” about making a change in 5 years. Ever the indelicate one, I asked, “What do you think your lifespan is?” The move they’re considering should have been made ten years ago. It will be more difficult as time passes. They are in a house with steep stairs. Her knees and hips are giving out. I guess a tumble down a flight of stairs is a quick way to avoid planning for the future, but it’s kind of a drag, don’t you think?


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